We've seen two events over the last couple of days that could trigger mass (open source) protest in China.
The first is a watermelon street vendor that was beaten to death with his own scale by a city militia.
The second is a wheelchair bound man that was blew himself up (after warning people to back away), at the Beijing airport. He was crippled by an urban militia for running an informal taxi service with his scooter.
Both incidents have been accelerated by social media -- blogs and a short message service like Twitter -- due to widespread public disatisfaction with the militia system called Chengguan.
Chengguan militias were set up in Chinese cities in 2001 to enforce urban codes (a Chinese variant of "broken windows" in US cities). They are run by local officials with little central oversight.
They mainly harrass the informal economy in Chinese cities and are known for corruption ("confliscation") and brutal enforcement.
That corrupt brutality is widely resented, particularly now. Why now?
Chinese economic growth is slowing and people are turning to the informal economy in desperation only to run into a brutal, corrupt local militia armed with batons.
So, will these two incidents serve to ignite an open source protest that will sweep China -- a watermelon revolution?
Millions of people hitting the streets and blogs under one simple banner: no more corruption!
Perhaps. From afar, these protests look like excellent triggers.
If it doesn't happen now, it will. Remember, China is operating on borrowed time.
It's run by a government without any basis for legitimacy other than fast economic growth.
To maintain power, that needs to be true, and it's not true anymore.