NOTE: this is a non-traditional approach to thinking about warfare and ISIS. I use it, and so should you, to generate new insights into the problem. This framework explores the impact of the entrepreneurial mindset on modern warfare.
One of the most interesting aspects of ISIS? The diversity of their cash flow. They make money from tariffs to taxes to smuggling to oil production to hostage taking to the plundering of art/antiquities/etc.. To accomplish this, ISIS must be very entrepreneurial -- able to identify and exploit financial opportunities whenever they become available.
This means that ISIS isn't your standard 20th Century terrorist group, living hand to mouth on donations and an odd criminal job. However, they haven't become a nation-state either. They haven't built the bureaucratic structures we expect of a nation-state. They are something in between. Let's explore this a bit.
- Nation-states are organizational constructs built to do one thing: to mobilize economies and populations for total war. In fact, nation-states were so good at doing that one thing, they've killed off all competitive systems of governance. To mobilize in this way, nation-states have built a plethora of ways to extract resources from the economies they dominate and bureaucracies to automate the process.
- In contrast, terrorist and many guerrilla groups of the last Century were dependent on donations from nation-states and wealthy sympathisers. A dependency that reminds me of the famous line from the delusional Blanche DuBois -- "I have always depended on the kindness of strangers."
- ISIS is somewhere in between these two extremes. It's an entrepreneurial organization consumed with finding innovative ways to make money. One that isn't tied down to territory, form of organization, or method of operation. It can change on a dime if it generates more funding.
This isn't completely new. ISIS is part of a trend. The return of an entrepreneurial, commercial approach to violence has been going on since 2004. Since then, we've seen lots of evolution in the marketplace.
For example, although private military companies were the early leaders in the return of commercial conflict (the number of contractors in Iraq outnumbered US military personnel), they were dependent on government financing. So, when that financing ended, they wilted.
In contrast, jihadi entrepreneurs have been on a roll. They've been innovating since the US left Iraq. They've found new sources of income from both conquered territory and black globalization, mastered the use of the Internet for marketing and networking, developed a form of fundamentalist Islam that provides group cohesion and appeal, and opportunistically taken advantage of regional weaknesses to acquire a huge amount of territory (with 8 million people in it).
However, despite its maturation as a start-up, ISIS still hasn't entered the big leagues. To do that, it needs to do one thing. It needs Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia offers one thing to the jihadi entrepreneurs that no other place can offer. It's not Mecca and Medina. Those holy sites, although extremely important to the cohesion and legitimacy of the jihad, come in a close second to the real goal.
To the jihadi entrepreneurs consumed 24x7 with making enough money to keep ISIS going, Saudi Arabia is the end game. Almost unlimited amounts of loot. A mountain of loot. Enough loot to finance the unlimited expansion the jihad. A chance to mint new Emirates by the boatload.
To these entrepreneurs, this is the IPO (initial public offering) of the Century. An event so financially fruitful it makes the IPOs of Google, Facebook, and all of their Internet brethren pale in comparison. Given this trajectory, the only question is when? When will ISIS pivot south and go IPO? Soon.