While ISIS Melts the Map, the Pentagon Fiddles

Monday, 02 February 2015

While ISIS Melts the Map, the Pentagon Fiddles

I've spent the last month writing about the inevitable collision between ISIS and Saudi Arabia. Here are some of the articles:

As I dug in, it's become clear to me and many of you I hope, that ISIS has the potential to melt the map of the Middle East by absorbing portions of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan, and Yemen.

Further, the deeper I dug into the evolution of ISIS and the vulnerabilities of Saudi Arabia, the more I found the melted map outcome to be likely.

Obviously a partially melted map is an extreme outcome, particularly once Saudi Arabia (Mecca, Medina and Oil) is gobbled up.

In fact, this outcome is so extreme, it makes it the most compelling topic of military study since the cold war ended (al Qaeda was just a warm-up and cyber is a sideshow), and also obviously something that we should be pulling out the stops to figure out.

This is why I found this announcement perplexing:

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has established a research and essay competition in honor of King Abdullah, to be hosted by the National Defense University. Announcing the creation of the competition on Monday, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey said it is a fitting tribute to the life and leadership of King Abdullah.

“This is an important opportunity to honor the memory of the king, while also fostering scholarly research on the Arab-Muslim world, and I can think of no better home for such an initiative than NDU,” Dempsey said in a statement announcing the competition.

When I first read this, I thought it was a joke from the Duffle Blog. It's not fake, it's real.

Unfortunately, it's another depressing example of how misguided and dogmatic US military thinking has become.

Instead of:

figuring out why ISIS is an ideological and military threat to the Kingdom, or
what would happen if the Kingdom were to fall quickly, or
how to avoid all of this mess in the most adroit way possible....

...our military thinkers are writing paeans to a dead medieval monarch.

Apparently, if Saudi Arabia does fall, everyone in the US military can say whocoudaknowd? (the same thing the idiot savants on Wall Street said in 2008).

Posted at 06:39 PM | Permalink

On Brave New War

Purchase Brave New War
New York Times Op-Ed
...a fast, thought-sparking book.. -- David Brooks
Greenpeace
I read it twice and bought six copies for my friends -- John Passacantando (Exec. Dir. Greenpeace)
G. Gordon Liddy Show (radio)
...this is a seminal book in the truest sense of the term.. way ahead of the curve... go out and buy it right now -- G. Gordon Liddy
City Journal
Robb has written an important book that every policymaker should read -- Glenn Reynolds (Instapundit)
Small Wars Journal
Without reservation Brave New War is for professional students of irregular warfare and for any citizen who wants to understand emerging trends and the dark potential of 4GW -- Frank Hoffman
Scripps Howard News Service
A brilliant new book published by terrorism expert John Robb, titled "Brave New War," hit stores last month with virtually no fanfare. It deserves both significant attention and vigorous debate... - Thomas P.M. Barnett
Chet Richards DNI
John has produced an important book that should help jar the United States and other legacy states out of their Cold War mindset. You can read it in a couple of hours – so you should read it twice...
Washington Times / UPI
Robb correctly finds the antidote to 4GW not in Soviet-style state structures such as the Department of Homeland Security, but in decentralization -- William Lind (the father of 4th generation warfare).
Robert Paterson
Having painted a crystal clear picture of how a war of networks is playing out, he comes to an astonishing conclusion that I hope he fills out in his next book.
The Daily Dish
John Robb of Global Guerrillas has written the most important book of the year, Brave New War. - Daily Dish (The Atlantic)
Simulated Laughter
Well-written. Brave New War reads more like an action novel than a ponderous policy book. - Adam Elkus
FutureJacked
Go buy a copy of this book. Now. If you are low on cash, skip a few lunches and save up the cash. It is worth it. - Michael Flagg
ZenPundit
The second audience is composed of everyone else. Brave New War is simply going to blow them away. - Mark Safranski
Haft of the Spear
There aren’t a lot of books that make me recall a 12-year-old self aching for the next issue of The Invincible Iron Man to hit the shelves. Well done. - Michael Tanji
Ed Cone
His book posits an Army of Davids -- with the traditional nation state in the role of Goliath. - Ed Cone (Ziff Davis)
The Newshoggers
I highly recommend reading and re-reading this work. - Fester
Shloky.com
This is the first real text on next generation warfare designed for the general population and it sets the bar high for following acts. It is smart, it is a short read, and it will change your thinking. - Shlok Vaidya
Politics in the Zeros
I suggest this is something Lefties need to start thinking about now, as that decentralized world is coming. - Bob Morris
Hidden Unities
A thoughtful book that should be read more widely than the latest Tom Friedman whopper, Chalmers Johnson scare tale or Bill Kristol hack fest. - EB