Global Guerrillas

SCENARIO: A Quick Recap of France's Vulnerability

Open source warfare when it uses systems disruption, can quickly disrupt and delegitimize the state. We see both in use in France. While the level of systems disruption we have seen so far is crude (the worst example is the shutdown of Lyon's subway system), it is unlikely to remain that way. A more sophisticated approach to the disruption of France would require assaults on its electricity system. UPDATE (Nov 12): despite a curfew, 30 people swarmed an electricity substation in Amiens and plunged the north half of the city into darkness.

SCENARIO: The Fate of the BTC Pipeline

Last week, an important milestone was reached in the BTC (Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan) pipeline project -- a one million barrel a day pipeline that will finally allow oil from Azerbaijan and other Caspian sea locations to reach tankers on Turkey's Mediterranean coast (without Russian participation). The pipeline's valves were turned on in Georgia. At this rate of progress, it will be fully operational (all the way to Turkey) by the end of the year.