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September 26, 2005


Will Raiser

This looks like the emerging, or re-emerging, pattern in Afghanistan fueled by drug production.

Oil may be harder for local groups to exploit because of the high infrastructure and operational costs -- who wants to invest in a situation of "controlled chaos."

In Columbia and Afghanistan, local people can invest and reap the direct rewards of such investment.

John Robb

There's plenty of "tax" that can be added to 1.5-2 m barrels a day of oil production (to a degree, this is already going on). There is also bunkering (which is big business in Nigeria).

Will Raiser

I realize there LOTS of potential tax. Where's the reasonably stable environment that will allow an oil industry -- drilling, refining, transporting -- to develop so that one can tax it. That's the part I don't see, particularly in an environment of controlled chaos with multiple, small, competing groups.

John Robb

Regardless, the expansion of the oil industry in Nigeria is still going on despite the disorder of controlled chaos. Pumping goes on in Colombia too.

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