Civil War in Iraq?

Will Iraq move towards civil war if the US withdraws. Probably not. This would require a radical reversal in 5th generation global guerrilla operations (states vs. autonomous fragmented non-state forces as opposed to 4th generation states vs. non-state proxies or Maoist revolutionary movements) from its current equilibrium point back towards conventional methods. This is unlikely to happen. A more likely outcome: a Colombian scenario with groups funded by oil instead of cocaine. The paramilitary divisions in Basra demonstrate the inability of Shiites to act as a unit. Each group will stake out a territory (including the government as the biggest gang of all) and exact "taxes" on oil production. This rough stability (controlled chaos) can exist for decades.

Comments

[Will Raiser]

This looks like the emerging, or re-emerging, pattern in Afghanistan fueled by drug production.

Oil may be harder for local groups to exploit because of the high infrastructure and operational costs -- who wants to invest in a situation of "controlled chaos."

In Columbia and Afghanistan, local people can invest and reap the direct rewards of such investment.

[John Robb]

There's plenty of "tax" that can be added to 1.5-2 m barrels a day of oil production (to a degree, this is already going on). There is also bunkering (which is big business in Nigeria).

[Will Raiser]

I realize there LOTS of potential tax. Where's the reasonably stable environment that will allow an oil industry -- drilling, refining, transporting -- to develop so that one can tax it. That's the part I don't see, particularly in an environment of controlled chaos with multiple, small, competing groups.

[John Robb]

Regardless, the expansion of the oil industry in Nigeria is still going on despite the disorder of controlled chaos. Pumping goes on in Colombia too.