John Robb's Weblog

P2P Webcasting

This is still a cool concept waiting to be born. Dave and I almost made this possible back in 2002, but the partner we were talking to wasn't right (it's funny how many things we worked on are being recycled into VC fundable concepts today).

The big clue is that it's time for a P2P company (hey Onion!) to take a chance on an application that could lead P2P from the lawsuit hinterlands to the next big acquisition/IPO. My recommendation: talk to Dave. I have some good ideas on this too.

The global erosion of trust in institutions/celebrity/government

Peter Gumbel has a good article on this in TIME. The level of trust may fluctuate but the general trend appears to be down (the 4GW crisis of legitimacy?): As political and business leaders ready themselves for their trek to the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, they do so at a time when the mistrust of authority—and an increasingly vocal disrespect for it—has gone global. Deference is dead, replaced by sniping, cynicism and an outpouring of open protest. Thanks to the Internet, every individual's gripe can now be amplified and diffused to a mass audience, whether the gripers are retired Americans whose pension benefits have been slashed or Chinese peasants who have lost their farmland to the nation's torrid industrialization. A recent WEF poll of more than 20,000 people in 20 countries revealed that public trust in national governments, the U.N. and multinational companies dropped significantly over the past two years and is now close to the lows recorded after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

Thought police gag scientists

In another sign of how isolated and autocratic the Bush administration has become, here's a good article on how scientists that work for NASA and other agencies are prevented from sharing their findings with the public.

Paramilitary Governments

Colombia, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Reuters on the problems with Paramilitaries in Colombia. An increasing number of states are relying on them to maintain order, but are ultimately losing control in the process.

The militias, organized in the 1980s by drug smugglers and cattle ranchers to fight Marxist rebels, are disbanding in return for reduced jail sentences for crimes such as a massacre and kidnapping. The government says fewer than 4,000 paramilitaries remain under arms, down from 20,000. But human rights groups say militia criminal networks remain intact and paramilitary-friendly candidates, who benefit from the intimidation of politicians like Gomez and Arenas, will likely gain ground in the March vote.

"One of the results of the election will be paramilitaries involved in the cocaine trade will gain a veneer of legitimacy while continuing their criminal activities," said Mauricio Romero, political analyst at Bogota's Rosario University. They will use their political clout to fight any attempt to extradite them to the United States on drug smuggling charges, he added. Uribe has stepped up extraditions of drug suspects but paramilitary leaders expect to avoid being sent north if they keep their side of the peace deal.

Vicente Castano, a top paramilitary chief, said last year that 35 percent of Congress was friendly to the group, a percentage he expected to grow after the March vote. The government called Castano's statement exaggerated.

Backstory for easing on Iran

BBC: Energy officials from eight central and eastern European countries have called on the EU to help build an integrated gas storage and distribution network to reduce reliance on Russia. A package of measures is being discussed, including the Nabucco project - a proposed 3,000km (1,850 mile) pipeline to take Iranian and Azeri gas from Turkey to Austria, through Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary.

What am I downloading?

Yesterday I admitted that I am addicted to downloading TV episodes from iTunes (despite the need for slightly higher quality downloads and the ability to share them between computer on the same iTunes account -- stupid DRM bugs..). So far, I've replicated a small scale cable subscription with my downloads (30 so far). I've watch nearly the entire seasons of LOST and Battlestar Galactica (an amazing series) via download. The time I have spent watching cable TV has dwindled to almost zero...

I've mentioned earlier, series like Firefly and others could make a hell of a run via downloads alone:

This has immediate potential for shows like Firefly which have a devoted audience but can't get airtime on a major network. The new model for independents like Firefly would be to produce shows to sell on the download networks. The revenue potential is likely 2-5x the production costs. This could in turn self-fund movies like Serenity that would hit the theater, DVD, and download land simultaneously. To zoom an audience, offer the first two episodes for free to hook the audience (they had me after two episodes).

The worm is turning...

US growth slows to 1.1%. Has the massive stimulus package (tax cuts and government spending splurge) and binge borrowing (a ballooning trade deficit with a negative savings) finally run out of steam? It may have. The tax receipts for the last quarter imply a $900 billion budget deficit for fiscal 2006...

We may be about to learn about what happens to nations that engage in wars of choice and superpower fantasies in Adam Smith's world...

Cool RC Airplane

This is a very cool micro RC airplane.

Friedman in Fantasy Land

Friedman continues to extend his vision of green politics in yet another OP-ED. This is getting tiresome, not because it wouldn't help, but because it will never happen. Like a lot of people in the "big idea space," at some point he has to match the reality on the ground with his fantastical construct. This is pure fantasy and devoid of any taste of reality:

On Tuesday President Bush will deliver his State of the Union address and map out priorities for his last three years. The direction in which America needs to go is obvious: toward energy independence. If Mr. Bush steps up to that challenge, this speech could be a new beginning for his presidency. If he doesn't, you can stick a fork in this administration.

As for me -- another denizen in the big idea space -- I'd rather stay with getting the facts on the ground correct and anticipating what will happen rather than what should happen. I am not arrogant enough to think that my ideas can change the world. The world is too complex and dynamically unstable for even big government fixes to work, let alone the ideas of any individual. Anybody that tells you otherwise is living within a reality distortion field.

Apple's TV downloads

I think Apple's results on TV downloads are going to be great. I am officially addicted.