Validity of 4GW theory

Zenpundit and others are entering a debate on the historical legitimacy of 4GW theory.

My take: the state vs. state generational framework of the 4GW theory has run its course. It is extremely useful as a method of describing the state's use of proxies to fight other states. It accurately describes the rise of proxy guerrilla wars by cold war opponents and proxy terrorism by developing nations as a means to achieve objectives without conventional/nuclear conflict. We've gone beyond the proxy model and therefore beyond the 4GW generational framework.

Globalization has radically changed the context of warfare. We are now in a world where conflict isn't between states but rather between states and self-sufficient non-states. It's post generational and the goals, methods, organizational types, etc are very different than 4GW dictates. We're fighting global guerrillas.

Comments

[mark safranski]

I think that you are correct John that Globalization is a critical factor in shaping "the battlespace" by undermining the old rule-sets and changing the parameters of what constitutes conflict and the "reach" of the players.

The 4GW school has a *very important* premise but I'm not certain their historical case hasn't been constructed after the fact to fit the assumptions. And there is a spirit of determinism running through the theory that seems to ignore countervailing trends

[John Robb]

The 4GW theory is an excellent description of "unfair" methods in proxy conflicts. Its jump to post-state warfare has been grafted on in a shoddy way, which opens it up to critique. State delegitimization only began in earnest with globalization. It's a byproduct of non-state warfare with states and not the root cause of our current epochal war.

The real root cause is the viability of non-state competitors made possible by globalization. This is creative destruction.

[Dan tdaxp]

John,

Would the weakness of states made possible by liberal education also be a root cause? The education system in most modern countries is designed to sweep away the petty identities students come in with, making them more amenable to 4GW-style revolutionary ideologies.

I would imagine a significant fraction of American ideological-revolutionaries (from SDS to American salafis) share a fantastic liberal education.

[Chet Richards]

You raise an interesting point, and you are right that there are states that would be weakened by liberal education. But for us - the US and the democracies - what's the alternative? Illiberal education?

If exposing people to a wide range of ideas and teaching them to think for themselves is causing us to be vulnerable to 4GW, then we have problems much deeper than even Bill Lind's fertile imagination can conjure.

Any state that is vulnerable to a liberal educational system deserves to disappear (take a glance around the Middle East ...) After all, a state is just a human construct - it serves us, not the other way around, or at least that's the way it's supposed to work.

Yeah, we're going to lose a few people out at eight sigma - the SDSers, etc. - but I'd rather have ideologues as the lunatic fringe than as the mainstream.

Best regards - Chet

[Federalist X]

chet: i have posted a comment with some of these thoughts in mind over at zenpundit. mark put together a wonderful post on education methods there as well.

i think i disagree with dan here. and maybe even you to some degree. but it could be a matter of simple definitions.

i was under the impression that true liberal education had been on the decline in the us, and even the rest of the west, since about the 50s.

you say that "If exposing people to a wide range of ideas and teaching them to think for themselves is causing us to be vulnerable to 4GW, then we have problems much deeper than even Bill Lind's fertile imagination can conjure."

i might refine that by saying we have not exposed our college students to such a wide range of ideas. instead we have opted for a compartmentalized specialization of fields educational system. no one can graduate even as an undergrad as a true generalist anymore. this problem is even becoming accute now in the law itself. perhaps liberal education is the answer and we simply need more of it?

[Federalist X]

a book on this issue which comes to mind is Eva Brann called the Paradoxes of Education in a Republic. it is avaliable at amazon.