Prep Time

Iraq is already in civil war, nothing was averted over the weekend. The apparent lull is just prep time. Christopher Allbritton agrees:

For the last 18 months, we’ve been in a low-grade civil war. The Askariya bombing kicked us up to “medium-grade,” I guess you might call it. Both Sunnis and Shi’a I’ve spoken with are waiting and preparing for it, and that very preparation might make for a self-fulfilling prophecy. For to many Iraqis, it’s only a matter of time.

The Controlled Chaos Exit window is closing quickly

The interesting thing is that the US military, caught in the bind of US domestic politics (can't retreat, etc.), isn't able to make the appropriate strategic decisions necessary to optimize our situation there. We should be in the process of withdrawing from Iraq all but a small contingent troops. This would allow us to participate in the process yet it would mitigate our exposure. The absolutely worst case situation (which is increasingly possible) is that the supplies to our troops are cut off and we are forced to fight our way out through a combo of guerrillas and militias. Smart decisions, made now, will prevent this situation from careening in that direction.

Comments

[dan]

The apparent lull also has a lot to do with the rather blithe assumption that islamists work on the solar, rather than the lunar, calendar.

Given that "smart" decisions are a rarity with the current administration, and that admitting mistakes is anathema, it's unlikely that there will be a change in direction from the top any time soon; there's far too much personal vanity invested in the enterprise. The controlled chaos exit, if not implemented this year, will be followed by "the Warriors" exit ( in a more authentic setting than NYC ).

[Andy]

Obviously a worst case scenario, but can anyone even imagine what the political fallout would be in this country if we lost an entire Army in Iraq?

It's scary to even think about it.

[John Robb]

Scares the shit out of me. All the Iranians would need to do is feed shoulder fired SAMs to the Sadrists and the Badrists to shut down our supply lines. It would go down hill from there very quickly.

There is something very Athenian in our level of confidence on this.

[Chad]

Can anyone explain why there's really no movement in DC to get the &@!# out of iraq now? I mean - Bush is at 34 percent approval. What, the Dems want to wait until he's in the 20s?

Geez.