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June 30, 2006 | Permalink | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
1) Shiite militia men ride into a Sunni area looking for revenge for a suicide bombing.
2) The locals defend themselves.
3) Shiite policemen aide the militiamen caught in the firefight.
4) The US comes to the aide of the policemen with helicopters and airstrikes.
June 29, 2006 | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 29, 2006 | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
June 29, 2006 | Permalink | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
The Coming Anarchy pointed me to this great site on "rethinking the future." I started with Peter Schwartz and I am working my way through them. Will make notes as I go forward.
Surprisingly, I am not as impressed as I thought I would be with Peter Schwartz (still have 30 minutes to go in the presentation). He is a "big" company/country strategist. His fatal bias: that they are the primary movers of the future. It's kind of funny, given that his presentation is about predicting surprises by eliminating biases.June 29, 2006 | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
June 28, 2006 | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 28, 2006 | Permalink | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)
Ron Suskind discusses his book (interview) on the Bush doctrine (which he revises to call Cheney's "One Percent Doctrine": Interdicting with all possible malice, low probability high impact events). This is the philosophy I used when I wrote the "Collapsing Iran" article. The experience in Iraq hasn't changed this policy at all.
Ron also completely backs up my premise that there are diminishing returns from terrorism. In effect, al Qaeda won't attack until it can conduct an attack that is bigger than 9/11. Very cool.June 28, 2006 | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
June 28, 2006 | Permalink | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)
June 28, 2006 | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBack (1)
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