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July 24, 2006

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b

It looks like Israel has lost this one and there is no way to salvage it. The "bomber Harris" strategy defeats the attackers moral position. Risk averse ground troops are looking impotent.

Hezbollah can now sit back, hold a bit of ground and just wait. They have no need to negotiate. As longer it takes as better for their position. I wonder how Israel wants to win anything by this.

The Israeli cabinet and IDF staff will probably be asked to resign over this desaster.

BTW: Comments on Billmon's pieces are welcome at Moon of Alabama

Dimitar Vesselinov

Some interesting photos:
http://abaleboosteh.blogspot.com/

billmon

I talked to a friend today who has very good sources on the Israeli side, and some sources in the Bush I realist crowd, although of course they're not in government any more.

He says it is now generally understood by all (particularly the Arab regimes, who bailed out today) that Israel is losing. They're freaking out about this, of course, because they're afraid that everybody and their Palestinian uncle is going to get it in their minds that they can take a piece of Zionist entity.

So Plan B is to try to "make something happen" on the ground -- although what, exactly, isn't clear. Today it was killing a low-level Hez leader (in a border village they supposedly secured three days ago) and pumping him up as a big catch (shades of Zarqawi's 28,000 "lieutenants".)

But I'm getting the impression from the official propaganda that the IDF is really struggling - they keep "securing" the same objectives again and again.

This is beginning to look like Israel's Iraq -- which is convenient since Lebanon was also Israel's Vietnam.

John Robb

They are right. Israel is going to widen the conflict to Syria and Iran.

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