William Gibson on 4GW and Paradigm Shifts

Excellent post, since it explains much of my personal experience:

This would explain, it seems to me, the apparently literal impossibility of explaining the fundamentally counterproductive nature of the United State's invasion of Iraq, or of what's currently going on in Lebanon, to those who disagree. Or, literally, vice versa. If you're behind the curve on the paradigm shift, if I'm reading Kuhn at all correctly, you're literally incapable of getting it. Or vice versa. "It is simply not possible, according to Kuhn, to construct an impartial language that can be used to perform a neutral comparison between conflicting paradigms, because the very terms used belong within the paradigm and are therefore different in different paradigms."

The bad news is that the policy-makers of the United States and Israel apparently (still) don't get the new paradigm, and the bad news is that Hezbollah (et al, and by their very nature) do. Though that's only bad (or double-plus-ungood) if you accept, as I do, that the new paradigm allows for a more effective understanding of reality. So if you still like to pause to appreciate the action of phlogiston when you strike a match, you may well be okay with current events. So many, God help us, evidently are.

Comments

[sglover]

The title of that essay is Gibson at his wordsmithing best -- "Hammer, Meet Wasp's Nest".

[Ben]

You know, I have been troubled for some time by your "scholarship" and advocacy of 4th generation warfare. While I think you feel you are just reporting "reality" in effect you are legitimizing terrorism and gorilla warfare that hides behind women and children while playing to a dishonest media that thinks they are rooting for an underdog. I hope I never see the day when this type of lieing, cowardly, and evil warfare is emulated by the US or Israel. We stand and fight!

While sneak attacks or surprise strategies are all legitimate we must condemn and speak AGAINST people that employ the so called "tactics" of 4th Gen warfare. By analyzing and advocating the emulation of these despicable "beheaders" wether in Iraq, Chechnya, Lebanon, or the so-called Palestinians, you are really calling for the civilized world to devolve into stateless clans of a prehistoric age. Wether the "clans" are based on economics, religion, or whatever I think civilization is better of with nations and armies that state their intentions and purpose openly like men and not skulk about the civilian population trying to "score" a publicity "win" at the expense of women and children.

Whatever you're opinion about the merits of the grievance of these 4th Gen heroes, I don't think we should legitimize their despicable tactics.

[konaman]

Paradigm shifts are an interesting thing; for the most part we usually discover it/they occured well after the fact. I find your arguments consistentley assymetrical. Let's remember, it is WEST that excels at innovation and adaptobility. Recall, it is the west that put a man on the moon, developed the microprocessor and the modern day financial theory that creates historic wealth generation. Sure we suffer from a self loathing for our succcess (save the why for another post), but I find repeatedly, you underestimate the ingenuity and resolve of western civilization. To ascribe a paradigm shift in innovation to a roving bunch of illiterate thugs is a stretch, at best. Their success is directly proportional to our admirable fortitude to resist our greatest and most reflexive asset, adaptability. Look at the recent examples of "4GW" conflicts and I posit we find ways to lose verus some creative genious on their part. I might also add that there is a certain amount of selection bias in any US comparison/statistic. Statistics usally work against you when you tackle only the most intractable problems historically.

It is not the inability of people trapped in an old paradigm that is the problem here, rather it is the reluctance of the civilized "old paradigmers" group to employ the necessary tactics for success. That you are writing about 4GW and that LeT, IJ, Hez and Hamas have been around for decades tells me if there was a paradigm shift it this article is late.

No one is disagreeing that there are disruptive events that reak havic on complex systems. But to use the disruptive events (Clayton Christenson) model, I suspect that even if current infrastructure/rule sets are not able to adapt, it is far more likley something other than a pock marked third world guerrilla movement will fill the gap. I suppose iran will be the test case. it is they who have to chooose between a GG (4GW) approach and entering the current (if mutating) rule set. Seems introspection should tell them that the incentives lie in the later.

As an aside, what if oil didn't matter in twenty years? That would be a paradigm shift and one whose far reaching geopolitical consequences would be worth spilling ink over. But to suggest we are about to become bands of roving thugs is far fetched. Even if it did happen, we could always revert here in the US to our citizen soldier model (did we invent that too?)

Cheers....

[konaman]

FYI - perhaps this is a paradigm shift in reverse..are we heading back to pre Richaleu times. If so, is that really a paradigm shift in the kuhn sense?

[John Robb]

No. While that is a conceptual analogy that allows as an introduction to the concept, the paradigm we see emerging today is substantially different from root to branch.

[John Robb]

Ben and Konaman, I am not an advocate. Of course, the belief that the enemy is evil incarnate shouldn't be a barrier to understanding how they fight and measuring their success or failure. That, in my opinion is a recipe for failure.

Despite this, please feel free to disagree. I encourage it. I would be very happy if nobody fully agreed with me, but would at most recognize the validity of some of my points.

[Marcello]

"While I think you feel you are just reporting "reality" in effect you are legitimizing terrorism and gorilla."

"I find repeatedly, you underestimate the ingenuity and resolve of western civilization. To ascribe a paradigm shift in innovation to a roving bunch of illiterate thugs is a stretch, at best."

Here you have,in a nutshell, the reason we have the problems we have.
1)A "shoot the messenger" attitude towards anyone who isn't parroting the party line.
2)Writing off non westerners as a bunch of subhuman savages.Now, not being myself what yoy could describe very politically correct I have been partially guilty of this at times but I know I should know better.
Babbling about space exploration is highly irrilevant in this context, certainly having put the first man in space did no good to the soviets in Afghanistan.
Eventually this sort of mentality leads you to make statements like these:

"No Viet-Minh cannon will be able to fire three rounds before being destroyed by my artillery."

One cookie for you if you get the reference.

If you actually believe that the guys who are building IEDs in Iraq or setting up antitank ambushes in Hizbollastan are illiterate,get a clue.ASAP.

"rather it is the reluctance of the civilized "old paradigmers" group to employ the necessary tactics for success."

The only foolproof tactics in these situations are ethnical cleansing, concentration camps, genocide and the likes.
Civilization at its finest, indeed.

[Marcello]

"I hope I never see the day when this type of lieing, cowardly, and evil warfare is emulated by the US or Israel. We stand and fight!"

Utter.Complete.Bullshit.
The same things were said about unrestricted submarine warfare,the torching of entire cities with incendiary weapons and so on.Heck they probably told the same things about gunpowder back in the day.
Eventually in the name of military necessity they were all integrated in the standard toolkit and even celebrated as the right and heroic thing to do.
In the meantime I am watching Israel which hoped (until common sense prevailed) to win a war by sending planes to blow up bridges and power plants from high altitude.
So heroic.

[Big Gav]

"I hope I never see the day when this type of lieing, cowardly, and evil warfare is emulated by the US or Israel. We stand and fight!"

Ummm - have you ever read any of the history of the founding of Israel ?

Try looking up "Stern Gang", "Irgun", "Maccabees" and the various other paramilitary groups operating in the British mandate in Palestine in the period during and post world war 2 and you'll find that "terrorism" is simply a word for military activities by non-state actors - and it doesn't matter if they are Islamists, Zionists or any other "ist" - the methods are always the same - though they seem to be learning more from each other in recent years.

I'm sure if the US was one day weak and occupied by a foreign power the local residents would take up asymmetrical warfare as well - this is just reality and there's no point getting too worked up about it - perhaps it would be better to see if the underlying causes could be resolved...