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October 25, 2006



I regard Josef Joffe as a neocon - just to get the direction straight. The E.U. wants a sellout of Russias interest. But unlike the drunk Yeltsin, Putin will not sign up to that.

If you cut off the gas, you will not hurt Russia that much.

Europe has hardly an alternative for gas and might well join in a coalition with Russia to guarantee itself reliable gas (including a military coalition to secure the pipelines).
That would end NATO. Better that than me freezing here ...


I agree with B. There are pipelines and oil tankers all over the place, and no-one's attacking them. Real world interests trump quixotic terrorism except where a large state is blatantly violating a weaker one's territory or religion. Like the US.


A good overview over geopolitics, oil and russia from the non MSM-side:


John Robb

bobw, I guess you are overlooking the attack on Abqaiq earlier this year. Almost a blow out.

b, a cold winter and that logic will change in a hurry.

jesus reyes

The main players are US, EU and Russia. Georgia, Chechnya, etc. are proxies. An action like this takes the "War for Global Resouces" to another level. It is unimaginable that Russia would just shrug their shoulders. The succeding moves would probably be more "Abqaiq's". It's hard to believe that any of the main players want to take it to this level.


James Howard Kunstler has reported that world oil production peaked in December 2005 and has plateaued since then. We may very well be on the downslope of Hubbert's bell curve. That may shake things up a bit even in Russia.

Gee I'm glad Friedman finally got around to reading the first Whole Earth Catalog. Maybe in another thirty years or so, he'll graduate to the first Viridian Note Bruce Sterling published eight years ago.

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