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November 11, 2006



What would the insurgents (sunnis) get in exchange for this deal? They already claim Bagdahd and their key real priority is access to oil. And what would we offer Iran, to give up its emerging regional power? Freedom from attack?

John Robb

Don't think too deep on this. To claim victory for the political 'fix' there are only two metrics: casualty and troop reductions. The political backdrop will only be for face saving and not a lasting or tangible solution.


Do you think that they might play semantic games? Where increasing National Guard deployments to maintain force levels, while drawing down the full timers in the Army and Marines is measured as "cutting troops?"

Bob Morris

If Baker wants a cut a deal with then Israel won't / can't attack Iran.

John Robb

T -- use of the Guard is more politically sensitive than the regulars. They are already maxed out.

Bob -- Israel is going to operate on its own timetable if the US doesn't act. Next summer is the cut off. I suspect they will focus what they have on cascade operations and manufacture.

In fact, the way to kick off conflict with Iran and not have it on the hands of the US administration is to let the Israelis start it. Expect a US green light and covert support (overflight, refueling, weapons, intelligence). Iranian counter attacks will put the US on the defensive, where it feels more comfortable morally.

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