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January 07, 2007

Comments

dan tdaxp

How is this "5th generation warfare"?

londamium

The problem with the strategy is that blowback via the pricing mechanism can be quite severe - especially in tight markets; there's little doubt that the gas price spikes of Summer 2006, motivated in part by the oil market fear premium of another Persian Gulf war, had an effect on the "moral cohesion" of US voters.

External "wild-cards" are liable to play a part as well: a cold winter, another bad GoM hurricane season, depletion issues, a well-executed terrorist attack are all capable of "rebalancing the equation".

As a medium-term strategy, this is unlikely to succeed - especially if the PO proponents are correct in asserting that we are currently on the bumpy plateau.

John Robb

Exactly, which is usually the case due the asymmetry of 4th and 5th GW. Break the market, we lose. Break the state, we think we win, but we ultimately lose.

Ben Hyde

Boy it could be bad if Microsoft found out about this technique!

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