ON WAR #326: Finis

William S. Lind
December 14, 2009

This will be the last On War column, at least for the foreseeable future. I will (unexpectedly) retire from Free Congress Foundation, where I have worked for twenty-two years, at the end of this month. Once I am re-established, either with a new institution or in retirement, I intend to re-start the column. When that will be I do not know. It also depends on obtaining connection to a telegraph line, which is not available everywhere.

After three hundred and twenty-five columns, what is left to be said? Two points, I think, are worth noting in closing. First, since the Marine Corps Gazette article that first laid out the framework of the Four Generations of Modern War was published in 1989, events have largely followed the course it predicted. That is not to say I was right in all my predictions in these columns. Were my crystal ball that accurate, I would be a rich man. (Being rich, as a Rothschild once defined it, is being able to live comfortably on the interest on the interest.) But in broad terms, the theory has had predictive value, which is the test of any theory.

In particular, the theory’s definition of Fourth Generation war has proven prophetic. Since 1989, the world has witnessed a progressive weakening of the state and rise of alternative, non-state primary loyalties, for which a growing number of men are willing to fight. That is the heart of my definition of Fourth Generation war. As Martin van Creveld says, what changes is not how war is fought, but who fights and what they fight for.

Other definitions of 4GW, including defining it as just a new name for insurgency, miss the mark. Fourth Generation war is more than a buzzword. It is the biggest change in war since the Peace of Westphalia.

The second point I would close with is that the U.S. military doesn’t get it. Some European militaries do get it. Many Fourth Generation entities (not all) not only get it, they are writing the book. But the U.S. military is largely an intellectual void. Its two implied (and related) theories, that wars are decided by comparative levels of technology and by who can put the most firepower on targets, have both been proven false. Were they true, we would have won the Iraq and Afghan wars quickly. In fact, the Pentagon was so blinded by its false theories it thought we had won them quickly. Sorry, guys.

While many junior and field grade officers in the U. S. military have found value in the Four Generations framework (which says that American armed forces are not one, but two generations behind), the brass studiously ignores it. “Not invented here” is part of the problem, but the larger part is that our major headquarters think little if at all about war. What they think about is money. 4GW does little to justify bigger budgets. On the contrary, it suggests that most “big ticket” weapons programs are irrelevant to where war is going. That is not what the brass, or the defense companies they plan to work for after retirement, want to hear.

What might change that picture? Nothing will change in DOD until the money simply isn’t there anymore. The news, which is simultaneously good and bad, is that the money soon won’t be there. Like every previous imperial power, we are bankrupting ourselves. A trillion dollars here and a trillion dollars there, and soon it adds up to real money. The twin financing mechanisms of piling up debt and debasing the currency can only go on so long. We can already see the night at the end of the tunnel.

There is no better way to end this series of columns, at least for a while, than to recommend a book. The best book on where America now stands and where it is going is J. H. Elliott’s The Count-Duke of Olivares: A Statesman in an Age of Decline. Olivares was what we would now call the prime minister of Spain in much of the first half of the 17th century. His era saw Spain go from “the only superpower” to a downward plunge that lasted three centuries. Unusually, the more one looks at the details, the more the parallel holds. Then, as now, the root problem was the same: the court was controlled by interests that lived off the nation’s decay. Consider the book Scrooge’s recommendation for good Christmas reading.

Comments

[dagezhu]

Dear Sir,
You, and Ron Paul, are the only wise men left in America.

If you're leaving your job, please consider running for office.

[John Homer]

It was with a mixture of grief and anxiety that I read your last (for now) column. I will get the book and read it. I will also get "The culture of Defeat" to prepare for what is to come.

Thank you Mr. Lind

[Chris Durkin]

Mr. Lind:

I have gained many useful insights from your writings and I shall especially miss your annual long distance telephone conversations with Wilhelm II. May your retirement be enjoyable but temporary.

Godspeed.

[Pete]

Mr. Lind, thank you so much for your fine writings and thoughts over the years. I especially treasure your book with the late Paul Weyrich, "The Next Conservatism." I have been recommending it to friends since it came out. I have archived most of your work from DNI for future reference. I hope you will consider publishing some of your penetrating analysis and insights in book form in the future; you deserve a wider audience.

[Matt]

Mr. Lind,

Outstanding last post and I wish you well. Thanks for everything. -Matt

[Hammer]

Your voice and thoughts will be greatly missed.

The war in Afghanistan has been lost and it is as if the US Army "cannot or will not see it".

No BCT/RCT seems to be able to fight light and the only true "light fighter" division was eliminated in 1993 as part of the "peace dividend"-what a mistake if one looks back at that decision.

Soldiers/officers cannot even discuss 4GW, Sun Tzu, irregular warfare, "open source warfare"--heck 90% of them cannot even give a definition of the terms or names-and the current administration seems to believe the military that they can stabilize Afghanistan.

You will be sorely missed as a voice of sanity in a valley of insanity.

[David C.]

Mr. Lind,
Are your observations not confirmation of La Boetie's "Discourse on Voluntary Servitude?" The Army is not apart from society, and as the cohesion drains from the nation-state, all parts including the Army lose focus as well.

The nation-state served as a fine illusion that order grew from control, instead of from liberty. Your observations about the military "not getting it" is a microcosm of society at large. Where liberty to think and be adaptable is found, order can exist. Where only regimentation and central control exist, chaos invades.

When large numbers of people are optimistic and getting more so, they can believe the fiction that the large, anonymous political system is there to serve them. That phase has run its course, so the move to allegiance to smaller entities that have a better chance of actually delivering the goods (instead of exploitation) makes perfect sense. It's a brave new world, full of chaos as the old one fades.

[Bailey]

Absolutely gutted to read this, this column and The Next Conservatism have been a mainstay for me for some time now. Interesting and thought provoking amid the drivel of the mainstream. I hope Mr. Lind quickly finds a new home so his important work may continue.
Ive always found it funny that punks and football hooligans "get it" when they read this column while those who have chosen the TO BE path dont or wont grasp it.
Good Luck and thanks.

[Kate Carruthers]

Thank you so much for sharing your thoughts and knowledge. Wishing you all the best for the next phase in your life.

[Nebris]

I know you'll be back, Uncle Billy, God bless ya.

[David]

The best expose of how the war industry works is Col. Hackworth's About Face. As a battalion CO in Nam he figured a doctrine of taking on VC and defeating them. The brass refused to implement it. The story caused me to remember the sacking of MacArthur by Truman. And somebody said that no American force will be allowed to defeat Communists.

Why? Because the same people controlled the USSR and the US. Just as now, the same people control the Taliban and Al Qaeda. These are controlled, phoney opposition, people.

The banks set all this up a hundred years ago. They still run the show.

The goal is to run high tech, high dollar wars. That's where the money is.

Afghanistan is a guerrilla war. But the Pentagon will not be allowed to fight it as such. Col. Hackworth was eventually run out of the Army for taking on the establishment.

Afghanistan will not be won, because the bankers--the jews at the top--have ordered that it shall not be won.

The goal is to keep the defense contracts fat, and kill as many white troops as possible.

[Ed Stockelbach]

Thank-you for the perspective and the chats with Willy.

[Hammer]

The hacking by Shiite insurgents of US drones should be a wakeup call to 4GW.

A recent al Sahab battle video depicting Taliban insurgents (in a mountain village) using a gasoline powered Indian electrical generator tied to a laptop tied to a satcom phone in order to get to the Internet should be a wakeup call for advanced 4GW, but it is not.

Marines walking into an inverted V ambush were totally suprised, but they should not have been if in fact they were taught true light fighter techniques.

You will be greatly missed as the moment of truth for both the US Army and Marines is at hand if they stay with 2/3GW and get their heads handed to them or follow Sun Tzu and get to truly know your emeny better than yourself---can it be done---really do not have much hope that they will learn.

[Ed Beakley]

For many, the issue seems to have been "either-or" in regard to 4GW. To me it has always been a crucial lens through which to view our environment, one that reveals critical information not visible through the "conventional war/warfare" lens.

I haven't always understood or agreed, BUT I've always read and always learned.

God speed sir, hope to read your work once again soon.
Ed Beakley @ Project White Horse 084640

[Fred Zimmerman]

It's absurd to claim that European militaries know anything. They don't fight.

[Mr. Walker]

@ Zimmerman - perhaps their knowledge gives them the wisdom not to fight.